Monday, April 26, 2010

A Not-Quite-Faustian Bargain


You die and go to hell, where the devil proposes a game of chance. If you play on the first day you’ll have a one-half chance of winning, on the second day a two-thirds chance, and so on. If you win, you’ll go to heaven; if you lose you’ll stay in hell. When should you play?
Unfortunately, it seems you should wait forever. After a year of waiting your chance of winning would be 0.997268, but even then another day’s (presumably finite) torment would earn you 0.000007 greater chance of infinite joy.
Maybe the mere hope of heaven is worth something. But is it a valid hope if you never realize it?

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